Using Modeled Evidence in Nigeria’s Health System: understanding the gaps and promoting the value of evidence-based decision making

By Chinyere Mbachu, Prince Agwu, God’stime Eigbiromolen, Ifunanya Agu, Benjamin Uzochukwu and Obinna Onwujekwe
 
Statistics makes it possible to simulate real life behaviors using models, and this is termed ‘modeled evidence. Mathematical models that simulate different potential health scenarios around disease transmission, and/or the impact of policy interventions on health outcomes, can be valuable to decision makers. They can be used to prioritize and choose between complex trade-offs and ensure the best possible results in efficiency, effectiveness and impact of health policies and interventions.
Literature has shown that, although policymakers are aware of the need to make decisions that are based on scientific evidence, they do not regularly put this concept into practice. This is particularly the case with modeled evidence. Recent disease outbreaks and disasters have highlighted the need for a more proactive health system that anticipates and prepares ahead of health emergencies. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) relied extensively on evidence from mathematical models to understand the trajectory of the epidemic and to develop an appropriate response strategy.
As the usefulness of modeled evidence gains more traction in the Nigerian health system, it is necessary to learn how policymakers can be supported to use modeled evidence in decision making. This could be achieved by examining the extent to which modeled-evidence is understood, valued and used by decision makers, as well as the factors/mechanisms that enable or constrain the translation of modeled-evidence to decision-making.

 

Figure 1: Translation of Modeled Evidence to Policy: Nigeria’s Ecosystem Canvas
 
The target audience for this policy brief comprises all the stakeholders in the modeling to decision making ecosystem, including modelers, decision makers, and knowledge brokers who facilitate exchange between them.
Click here to download and read the full policy brief.
Acknowledgement: This project was done in partnership with Results4Development and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Suggested citation: Chinyere Mbachu, Prince Agwu, God’stime Eigbiromolen, Ifunanya Agu, Benjamin Uzochukwu and Obinna Onwujekwe (2022). Values, gaps and getting evidence generated from modeling into decision making in the Nigerian health system. A Policy Brief from the Translation of Modeled Evidence for Decision Making project in Nigeria.

“The pandemic is not over, as its impact persists in Nigeria’s health system”: Professor Onwujekwe at the Congress of Postgrads’ Medical Fellows

By HPRG News
 
The effects of COVID-19 pandemic continue to bite health systems, particularly those of low-resource regions. Quoting the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how vulnerabilities in health systems can have profound implications for health, economic progress, trust in governments, and social cohesion”. The question of strengthening health systems has been recurring since the pandemic and has gotten more answers than actions. However, the conversations must not cease, as it is needful to keep discovering and reminding ourselves of those areas in our health system that have been affected by the pandemic, while underscoring practicable solutions. It is in this regard that Professor Obinna Onwujekwe of the Departments of Health Administration & Management/Pharmacology & Therapeutics and the Health Policy Research Group, University of Nigeria delivered a lecture, titled “Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare delivery in Nigeria” at the 16th Annual Scientific Conference and All Fellows’ Congress of the Postgraduate Medical College Fellows’ Association that held at Eko Hotels & Suites, Victoria Island, Lagos in August 2022.

 

Figure 1: Cross-section of participants
 
Prof Obinna questioned the resilience of Nigeria’s health system for its failure to achieve the health-related MDGs and its slow pace toward the 2030 health-related SDGs targets. He showcased the indicators that reveal low-level access to quality healthcare services in Nigeria and minimal financial risk protection for health service users. He discussed further how the pandemic disrupted the delivery of essential health services like antenatal, post-partum, intrapartum care, family planning, vaccination services as well as treatment of non-communicable diseases, as health facilities were forced to shut down, some even shutting down unofficially. The impacts of this lack of resilience on morbidity and mortality cannot be overstated. For instance, UNICEF projected that an additional 950 Nigerian children might die every day from preventable causes over the next six months as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted routine services. The figure below shows the steep downward dive in antenatal visits as the pandemic persisted:

 

Figure 2: Antenatal attendance fell drastically in 2020 compared to 2019 (MSDAT, 2020)
 
Click here to gain access to the full content of the lecture.
 
How to cite: Onwujekwe, O. (2022). Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare delivery in Nigeria. https://hprgunn.com/the-pandemic-is-not-over-as-its-impacts-persist-in-nigerias-healthcare-professor-onwujekwe-at-the-congress-of-postgrads-medical-fellows/

Surviving and Thriving in the Post-Pandemic Era: Exploring Research, Science and Innovation at the University of Nigeria

By Chidi Nzeadibe, Geraldine Ugwuonah, Obinna Onwujekwe, Bennett Nwanguma, Theresa Ogbuanya, Paul Oranu, Emmanuel Ezeani, Chinonso Igwesi-Chidobe, Chizoba Obianuju Oranu, Paul Adeosun and Felix Egara
 
Why yet another conference on Covid-19 Pandemic?
COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the most serious global challenge since World War II. The 1st Annual Multidisciplinary International Conference of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka (UNN) which took place from 5th – 7th July 2021 was convened to explore the role of research, science and innovation arising from the institution and elsewhere in surviving and thriving in the post-COVID era.  The theme of the maiden conference was A Whole New World: Research, Development and Innovation in the Pandemic Era. In his remark, the Vice-Chancellor of the institution, Professor Charles Arizechukwu Igwe, FAS, noted that the choice of this theme reflected the university’s recognition of the huge impact that COVID-19 continues to have on public health systems, society, food systems, education, and economies which have led to massive transformations in the way we live and work.
 
Mainstreaming Science and Innovation in Management of Pandemics- The UNN Example 
The pandemic has given rise to significant research, development and innovation possibilities across different fields of human endeavour, typically with the varying aims of understanding, overcoming or adapting to the challenges posed by COVID-19.  At the University of Nigeria, many researchers have sought to leverage the opportunities inherent in the adversity of the pandemic to come up with research outputs with huge potential to improve lives and livelihoods and for overcoming or adapting to the challenges posed by COVID-19. The UNN International conference brought together researchers, policymakers, development partners, NGOs and research funders both in Nigeria and beyond to explore research, development and innovations in various disciplines within the context of COVID-19. In line with the realities of the pandemic and to utilize innovations in ICT and remote learning and working, presentations at the conference were done virtually through the Zoom app. Other applicable COVID-19 protocols were also observed.
 
Science for Social Relevance: Views of the Public Health Expert
The conference keynote paper entitled A Whole New World: Research, Development and Innovation in the Post-Pandemic Era was presented by the globally acknowledged expert on Virology and Infectious Diseases, and Chairman of Nigeria’s Ministerial Expert Advisory Committee on COVID-19 (MEACoC), and former President of the Nigerian Academy of Science, Professor Oyewale Tomori, FAS. He described COVID-19 as ‘the evasive, invasive, elusive, invisible one’ that came to expose the underbelly of our decadent healthcare system and the depravity in our society. Harping on the role of Nigerian scientists in the fight against the pandemic, Prof Tomori averred that:
“the scientists in Nigeria should identify with and be seen by the society as part of the society, must be asking the right questions relating to the problems of our society, must focus research activities on the directions of questions asked, and in collaboration with the government must seek relevance in serving and meeting the identified needs of the society”.
 
Effective Science Communication: dispelling myth, providing context
In a goodwill message, conference partners – The Conversation Africa (TC-Africa) noted that researchers from the UNN have been writing for the website since 2016 in their mission to mainstream the voices of universities and scientists in the media and to support science engagement and science communication activities in Africa. So far, 41 authors from the UNN have published 37 articles (out of which 16 focused on COVID-19 and other health-related topics) which have been read over 200,000 times. With a monthly readership of 2.5 million, participation of TC-Africa is particularly significant to global dissemination of results of research from this conference. TC-Africa recently recognized the University of Nigeria among the Top Universities in Africa, and her researchers for the most published articles and most read article during the 2nd Annual West Africa Science Communication Awards.
 
Going forward: Translating research outputs to policy and action
Nearly 200 papers from multidisciplinary perspectives were presented in 33 panels and 6 technical sessions. Topical issues discussed and lessons included innovations in health systems and management, agricultural innovations and food security, lifestyle changes and adaptive behaviours, urban planning innovations and informal settlements, sustainable education, remote learning and digital innovation, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH).
A major impact of the conference was the massive public awareness it created, dispelling myths that Nigerians are immune to SARS-CoV-2 and that COVID-19 is a hoax, and also providing context on the pandemic through timely publications in print and electronic media. Research funders both in Nigeria and outside the country were urged to key into the research, development and innovations possibilities at this conference and collaborate with the university to support uptake of the outputs of this conference and other related research projects. It is expected that the quantum of ideas, methodologies and actionable policy recommendations from this conference will contribute immeasurably to global effort at dealing with the pandemic and that products of this conference will help to chart a new development course in the post-pandemic era.
 
Authors’ bios
  • Chidi Nzeadibe is Professor of Geography and Chair of the Conference Committee Twitter: @NzeadibeChidi
  • Obinna Onwujekwe is Professor of health economics, policy and pharmacoeconomics, and, Director of Research, UNN
  • Geraldine Ugwuonah is Professor of Marketing
  • Bennett Nwanguma is Professor of Biochemistry and Chair, Senate Ceremonials Committee, UNN
  • Theresa Ogbuanya is Professor of Industrial Technical Education   
  • Paul Oranu is the Director of ICT, UNN                                             
  • Emmanuel Ezeani is Professor of Political Science and Director UNN Consult
  • Chinonso Igwesi-Chidobe is a Senior Lecturer in Medical Rehabilitation
  • Chizoba Oranu is a Lecturer in Agricultural Economics
  • Paul Adeosun is a Lecturer in Agricultural Economics
  • Felix Egara is a Lecturer in Science Education and Conference Committee Secretary.
 
Acknowledgement
We acknowledge Dr Charles Orjiakor for the review of this blog.
 
How to Cite
Nzeadibe, C., Ugwuonah, G., Onwujekwe, O., Nwanguma, B., Ogbuanya, T., Oranu, P., …, Egara, F. (2022). Surviving and thriving in the post-pandemic era: exploring research, science and innovation at the University of Nigeria. https://hprgunn.com/surviving-and-thriving-in-the-post-pandemic-era-exploring-research-science-and-innovation-at-the-university-of-nigeria/